Monday, July 26, 2010

Phew. Being the the bear camp sure feels like being at band camp and for the life of me I can't remember the title of that movie.

Anyway the biggest change to my view is now to be square bonds. The trend is looking shaky here. A false break in Bobl/Shatz a few days ago lead me to believe that the upside still had a chance but with the reversal over the last 2 days and Gilts breaking out of it's congestion pattern leads me to believe that we're about to test the resolve of all those longs out there. This will contaminate US Bonds too I think. Trend still looks fairly entrenched but I would lighten up on US curve here or go to sidelines. if you wanna be long, be long US curve. Others look like they're about to head lower into the wonderful world of range.

Other views remain the same. Equities, SP as proxy, all looking perky so can't argue with the price action. Think any pullback will be shallow and we will crawl higher. VIX is also looking shaky here. Sell Vol/Donwside wear diamonds kinda work here too. We can place crude & cousins in this space too as "same same" trade.

USD is sick. Risk ccy are bid. USD Trend is about to continue here. If anything I would look at this space. Bullish Euroyen, think we're going to break topside out of this pattern and it's probably going to be JPY/US rates (same same) driven.

Now gold and copper, spread is compressing and looks to continue. I keep having that sinking feeling about gold. Now in the ags space, we're going through a bit of a correction here, hopefully this is not an elimination of the upward trend. Avoid corn, rather hold wheat at this stage. I'd go on about drought in Europe/Russia vs Abundance in US argument but others would provide you with better arguments/weather charts than I would. Sugars sweet spot is still up.

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