Thursday, July 22, 2010

What to you do when you're in the camp of the bears and market momentum is against you. Stand aside and wait. We're approaching or have breached the S&P downward trendline (however you draw it) and 50,100,200 etc trendlines that I think the market will test the bears resolve.

We're in a wide swing congestion market in equities. Sell front end vol, preferably the downside. We can place energy in this category too. The Gold/copper spread is compressing after making a high in mid June and is tracking back lower. I have a feeling that we're about to test resolve of the perma gold bulls here. Perhaps 1100-1140 area but one would probably have the spread on instead.

Buy bonds. What can I say. The trend is higher. That is the easier trade amongst the complex. that and being long Wheat, Beans & Sugar.

AUD has broken it's high. 9000 now in sights again. USD trending lower quite nicely. In line with the feel good risk environment, carry is probably about to take off again, but same same with being long equities really. EURJPY looks like it's about to breakout (topside) of it's congestion range. Options might be the way to go long here.

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